Democratic Enthusiasm Gap? Recent Evidence Says Otherwise

Although we have seen polling results which point to an enthusiasm gap for the Democrats in the 2012 election cycle, I believe there is empirical evidence which disputes the idea of such a gap. Before I get to the empirical evidence, I'd like to make an additional observation which runs counter to the widely-accepted notion that Romney supporters are currently more enthusiastic than Obama supporters. Intuitively, it is very difficult to swallow the idea that the somewhat robotic Mitt Romney has generated intense enthusiasm from Republicans this year. Also to be considered are the multiple gaffes, flip-flops and overall disjointed campaign effort. From a purely observational point of view it appears that Romney has not been able to "connect" effectively with many voters (independents, moderates, extreme fringe) that he desperately needs to turn out in November. The messaging has been disorganized and incidents such as his recent Libya response have brought into question his judgement. These factors would not normally translate into an enthusiastic GOP electorate.

The empirical evidence I am speaking about is the difference in viewership numbers for the respective conventions. Many pundits, pollsters and talking heads seem to have glossed over these numbers for reasons which I can't fathom. I'm sorry, but I'll take actual hard evidence of enthusiasm over pollster data any day. Here are the actual Nielsen ratings:

Day 1
Democratic Convention:  26.2 million viewers
Republican Convention:  22.3 million viewers

Day 2
Democratic Convention:  25.1 million viewers
Republican Convention:  21.9 million viewers

Day 3
Democratic Convention:  35.7 million viewers
Republican Convention:  30.3 million viewers

It is also worth noting that on Day 2 of the Democratic convention there was the NFL season opener between the Giants and Cowboys. Yes, the Democratic convention actually outdrew the football game and still beat the Republican convention numbers for that night! I also believe that the GOP numbers for the final night benefited from the appearance of Clint Eastwood. Some additional evidence of disparity in enthusiasm between the two conventions comes from the folks at Twitter. There were over 4 million tweets related to President Obama and the Democratic convention on the the final night which is more than for the entire GOP convention. It must be said that Democrats tend to be more technically savvy and heavier users of social media. But it is yet another indicator that Democrats may not actually be lacking in enthusiasm this year. I think most viewers who saw both conventions would conclude that the attendees seemed more fired-up in Charlotte.

I can't explain why some polling results show an enthusiasm gap. One theory is that progressives are somewhat disenchanted with President Obama's moderate first term and therefore they decline to profess enthusiasm. But in reality they are horrified at the idea of a potentially extreme Romney-Ryan administration and will vote in order to avoid that possibility. It is just my theory, but I believe it is plausible explanation for the discrepancy between polling responses and the hard evidence of actual democratic enthusiasm we observed in the TV viewership numbers. Based on the Nielsen ratings I would argue that if there is any gap in enthusiasm this election cycle, it is with the GOP and not the Democrats. November 6, 2012 will reveal if this evidence and my anecdotal observations are correct.